![]() Likewise, many analysts say that establishing the running game is a key to victory. ![]() This implies that rushing 100 yards was the catalyst for the victory. Louis Rams over the Houston Texans indicated: “ Jackson finished with 25 carries for 110 yards, improving the Rams’ record when having a 100-yard rusher to 38-0 since moving to St. For example, the recap of a 2005 victory for the St. This is often used in recapping games and when analysts describe the keys to victory. And a very common statistic used to support this claim is that teams are much more likely to win if they have a 100-yard rusher. **Keywords:** Football, NFL, passing, rushing, coachingĪ common assessment of the key to winning professional football games is to control the running game. Coaches and teams may have greater success by focusing on the passing games, both offensively and defensively. The results suggest that the common belief that controlling the running game is the key to winning in the NFL may be a misguided belief. I find that having a first-half passing-yard advantage increases the probability of winning, but having a first-half rushing-yard advantage has no significant effect. I use logistic models to model the probability of winning a game based on differences in rushing success and passing success in the first half. The data are the 256 regular season games for 2005. ![]() To address this issue, I use first-half statistics (essentially stripping the endogenous component from the statistics), with the justification that the halftime leader wins 78 percent of the time. ![]() Final-game rushing and passing statistics are endogenous because teams that are ahead will rush more in order to protect the ball and run the clock down. This analysis uses regression analysis to dispel the myth that controlling the rushing game wins NFL games. To evaluate whether controlling the running game or the passing game contributes more to winning in the NFL. Jeremy Arkes, Associate Professor of Economics, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, Naval Postgraduate School ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
Details
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |